Monday, April 13, 2026

Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Bailey Ober (20) vs Garrett Crochet (37) | Bullpen edge: MIN pen fresh (23), BOS taxed (1) | Model 55% vs market 40% (+33.5% EV)

Model total: 8.9 vs line 7.5 (+1.4 runs) | Weak SPs: Garrett Crochet (37) vs Bailey Ober (20) | Both bullpens taxed (MIN 23, BOS 1)

Model total: 8.7 vs line 7.5 (+1.2 runs) | Weak SPs: Cade Cavalli (25) vs Paul Skenes (24) | Both bullpens taxed (PIT 51, WSN 1)

Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Javier Assad (21) vs Cristopher Sánchez (37) | Bullpen concern: CHC pen depleted (31) but model still sees value | Model 45% vs market 37% (+16.6% EV)