Closing Line Value · Public Track Record
A baseball prediction stack built to beat the close.
A stack of MLB prediction models — one per market — that prices games before the market settles. Picks are settled, graded, and posted publicly the next day. Nothing live. Nothing for sale. Just the receipts.
ROI
+8.19%
Record (W-L-P)
31-31
CLV
-1%
Sample
62 picks
Tracking since Apr 2026. Sharp books only.
View full track record →Anyone can show wins. Closing line value is the metric that survives variance — beat the closing number consistently and the wins follow over a full season.
[01]
Drawdown & monthly P&L →Cumulative P&L
Last 60 days · units
day -18current: +2.5utoday
[02]
All daily cards →Most Recent Card
Apr 26, 2026 · settled · graded by post-mortem
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
SDP @ ARI
Under 15.5Total
65.8%
+0.0%
L
Bad Bet
CHC @ LAD
Under 9Total
20.2%
-2.4%
W
Got Lucky
PHI @ ATL
PHI MLML
15.9%
+0.0%
L
Bad Bet
MIN @ TBR
MIN MLML
11.4%
+0.8%
L
Unlucky
[03]
Read full methodology →How it works
The short version
Sabermetric ensemble
ELO + logistic + XGBoost over 15 features. xFIP and SIERA for pitchers, never raw ERA.
Closing line capture
Lambda fires at T-10min for every pick to record the close. CLV measured against actuals, not openers.
Post-mortem grading
Every settled pick scored as good bet / unlucky / lucky / bad bet. We grade the decision, not just the result.