Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Shane Baz (4.20 xFIP) and Kai-Wei Teng (4.14 xFIP) present solid pitching matchups that should suppress offense in 54°F conditions. The model projects 8.06 total runs against a 9.0 betting line, creating nearly a full-run edge. Houston's depleted lineup with 3 position player injuries further limits their scoring upside.

Casey Mize brings a superior 3.98 xFIP against Martín Pérez's 4.13, while our model projects 8.77 total runs versus the 9.0 betting line. Atlanta's defensive edge with +9 OAA compared to Detroit's -17 OAA creates additional run prevention, making the under a strong value play at 18.23% expected value.

Chase Burns takes the mound with a 4.35 xFIP against Colorado's struggling offense that ranks below league average at 94.56 wRC+. The model projects 8.85 total runs while the betting line sits at 9.0, creating a 0.15-run edge. Cincinnati's home bullpen advantage (4 vs 1 score) should help preserve the under in late innings.