02 · Daily Card
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Record
1-2
Picks
3
P&L
-0.48u
CLV
+1.5%
Settled picks
Sorted by edge at pick time
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
NYY @ BOS
NYY MLML
18.9%
+1.2%
Good Bet
Open+105betmgm→Close+100
Even pitching: Luis Gil (below avg) vs Connelly Early (below avg) | Offense favors NYY (above avg vs below avg) | Bullpen edge: NYY pen fully rested, BOS exhausted | Model 58% vs market 47% (+18.9% EV)
STL @ MIA
MIA MLML
17.5%
+2.1%
Unlucky
Open-115fanatics→Close-125
Pitching advantage: Chris Paddack (average) over Dustin May (below avg) | Bullpen edge: MIA pen available, STL exhausted | MIA returning from road trip — edges outweigh fatigue | STL hot (67%) but price compensates | Model 63% vs market (+17.5% EV)
BAL @ KCR
Under 9Total
17.3%
+1.1%
Bad Bet
Open-110betmgm→Close-115
Model total: 8.8 vs line 9.0 (-0.2 runs) | SPs: Shane Baz (average) vs Kris Bubic (average)