Saturday, April 11, 2026

Model total: 8.5 vs line 6.5 (+2.0 runs) | Mediocre pitching: Braxton Ashcraft (51) vs Edward Cabrera (40) | Both bullpens taxed (CHC 38, PIT 49) | Cold (41°F) — suppresses offense

Model total: 8.8 vs line 9.0 (-0.2 runs) | Solid pitching: Erick Fedde (50) vs Michael Wacha (66) | Weak lineups: KCR 95 + CHW 88 wRC+

Pitching advantage: Nick Martinez (52) over Max Fried (46) | Opp has stronger lineup (117 wRC+) but price compensates | Bullpen concern: TBR pen depleted (35) but model still sees value | Model 44% vs market 36% (+17.6% EV)

Even pitching: Eric Lauer (48) vs Joe Ryan (52) | Offense favors TOR (109 wRC+ vs 95) | Bullpen edge: TOR pen fresh (78), MIN taxed (1) | Model 60% vs market (+16.5% EV)