May 27 — 0-1, moneyline loss cost half a unit

Yesterday

0-1 · -0.50u · ROI -100.0% · CLV +2.29%

Rough start to the slate with the Padres falling 0-3 to Philadelphia despite strong underlying metrics. San Diego's defense (+7 OAA vs PHI's -10) and superior bullpen (71 vs 81) couldn't overcome Cristopher Sánchez's dominance, as the Phillies starter's 65.80 rating proved decisive against Walker Buehler's 37.10. The thesis on San Diego's late-game advantages never materialized in a shutout loss. The 2.29% CLV suggests sharp line identification, but execution fell short on opening night.

What missed

Worst result. SDP ML (PHI @ SDP) at +135, -0.50u — final 0-3, CLV +2.3%. Graded unlucky (positive CLV, lost).

The model severely underestimated Cristopher Sánchez's dominance, predicting 3.67 xFIP but he delivered a 7-inning shutout with 9 strikeouts against a 0.28 K-rate projection. Walker Buehler performed near expectations (3.82 xFIP predicted, 3.38 ERA actual), but the model's 6.98 total runs prediction missed badly against 3 actual runs. Philadelphia's offense collapsed despite 101.6 wRC+ projection. With 2.29% CLV, this was an unlucky loss on a fundamentally sound bet, not a systematic model flaw.