May 9 — 0-1, moneyline loss drops half unit

Yesterday

0-1 · -0.50u · ROI -100.0% · CLV +0.00%

The Tigers' pitching advantage thesis crumbled in Kansas City as Burch Smith's supposed 62.80 rating edge over Michael Wacha's 54.20 proved meaningless in a 5-1 blowout loss. Despite Detroit's projected bullpen quality edge of 51 points and offensive advantage of 5.42 wRC+, the Royals dominated from the start. Smith failed to deliver on his superior 3.92 xFIP versus Wacha's 4.36, getting shelled early while Kansas City's offense overwhelmed the Tigers' projected advantages. With 0% CLV on the loss, the read was off-market and off-target.

What missed

Worst result. DET ML (DET @ KCR) at +115, -0.50u — final 5-1, CLV +0.0%. Graded bad bet.

The model catastrophically misjudged Burch Smith's durability and effectiveness. Smith was projected for 3.92 xFIP with 24.7% strikeout rate but lasted just 0.33 innings, allowing 2 earned runs and 1 home run with zero strikeouts. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha dominated with 7 shutout innings despite a projected 4.36 xFIP. The away bullpen score of 60.0 proved accurate as Detroit's relief corps couldn't contain the damage. With 0% CLV, this was a fair-priced bet that lost on starting pitcher projection failure.