May 7 — 1-1, moneyline swings delivered small profit

Yesterday

1-1 · +0.12u · ROI +12.0% · CLV +0.80%

1-1 Night (+0.12u)

Cleveland cashed as the bullpen thesis materialized perfectly - their relief corps dominated while KC's bottom-tier pen (1/100) crumbled late, allowing 3 runs in the final innings. Slade Cecconi's superior 4.06 xFIP held up against Seth Lugo's 4.48. Cincinnati's loss stung despite the sound logic - the Cubs' last-place bullpen (1/100) actually held firm while the Reds couldn't capitalize on their 40-point relief advantage.

Mixed CLV tells the story: +2.57% on Cleveland shows sharp line value, while -0.97% on Cincinnati suggests market efficiency on that spot.

What hit

Best result. CLE ML (CLE @ KCR) at +124, +0.62u — final 5-8, CLV +2.6%. Graded good bet.

What missed

Worst result. CIN ML (CIN @ CHC) at +172, -0.50u — final 8-3, CLV -1.0%. Graded bad bet.

The model's 10.3% EV pick on Cincinnati ML suffered from systematic pitcher evaluation errors. Rhett Lowder (4.62 xFIP predicted, 20.2% K rate) collapsed with 9.00 ERA and 5.9% strikeouts across 3 innings. Meanwhile, Shota Imanaga exceeded projections with 1.50 ERA and 27.8% strikeouts over 6 frames versus his 4.06 xFIP/23.5% K forecast. The -0.97% CLV confirms market efficiency exposed the model's pitcher assessment flaws. Cincinnati's bullpen (1.0 score) and offense (99.7 wRC+) performed as expected, making starting pitcher evaluation the ...