May 6 — 0-3, moneyline bets led the losses

Yesterday

0-3 · -1.50u · ROI -100.0% · CLV -0.63%

Another brutal 0-3 night drops us to -1.50 units with all three moneyline favorites falling short. The Astros thesis completely collapsed as Lance McCullers Jr. got torched in a 12-2 blowout, with Tyler Glasnow's 70.70 rating advantage playing out exactly as expected. Atlanta's 79-rated bullpen edge over Seattle's 53-rated unit never materialized in a tight 3-1 loss, while Toronto's massive 65-point relief advantage was irrelevant in a 3-0 shutout. Negative CLV on both Atlanta (-0.87) and Toronto (-1.02) suggests we were chasing bad numbers on an unlucky slate.

What missed

Worst result. HOU ML (LAD @ HOU) at +179, -0.50u — final 2-12, CLV +0.0%. Graded bad bet.

The model systematically overestimated offensive production across all three losses. Toronto-Tampa Bay projected 8.65 runs but delivered only 3, with both offenses (101 wRC+ TOR, 97 wRC+ TBR) severely underperforming. LAD-Houston predicted 8.99 runs, actual 14 - but Houston's offense (104.5 wRC+) collapsed while allowing 12 runs. Atlanta-Seattle forecasted 8.63 runs, actual 4, with both 105+ wRC+ offenses failing to produce.

Starting pitcher projections were mixed but bullpen assessment proved catastrophic. The model's run environment calcu...