Closing Line Value · Public Track Record

A baseball prediction stack built to beat the close.

A stack of MLB prediction models — one for each betting market — that prices every game the night before, then publishes the picks publicly. Every result is settled, graded, and time-stamped the next morning. Nothing live, nothing for sale, no edits after the fact — just the receipts.

ROI

+7.14%

Record (W-L-P)

44-47

CLV

+1.43%

Sample

91 picks

Tracking since Apr 2026. Sharp books only.

View full track record →

Anyone can show wins. Closing line value — getting our bets in at prices better than where the market lands by first pitch — is the metric that survives variance. Beat the closing number consistently and the wins follow over a full season.

[01]

Cumulative P&L

Last 60 days · units

Drawdown & monthly P&L →

day -30current: -2.1utoday

[02]

Most Recent Card

Jun 6, 2026 · settled · graded by post-mortem

All daily cards →

Matchup

Pick

Edge

CLV

Result

Grade

TBR @ MIA

MIA MLML

16.8%

+3.2%

Good Bet

Open+125fanatics→Confirm+114fanduel→Close+110

[03]

How it works

The short version

Read full methodology →

Sabermetric ensemble

Three prediction methods vote — a chess-style power rating (ELO), a textbook statistical model, and a tree-based one — over 15 sabermetric features. xFIP and SIERA for pitchers, never raw ERA.

Closing line capture

Ten minutes before every first pitch, an automated job records the closing line at the same sharp books we entered at. CLV on this site is always measured against that actual close — not the opener, not some midline snapshot.

Post-mortem grading

Every settled pick scored as good bet / unlucky / lucky / bad bet — based on whether CLV agreed with us and whether we actually won. We grade the decision, not just the result.